NATO - The Ukraine

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Ukraine is on the brink, says a senior general

An interview with Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence.

The scruffy headquarters of hur, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, stands on a jagged piece of land in central Kyiv known as Fisherman’s Island. Strictly speaking, it is not an island but a peninsula. And there isn’t much fishing going on these wartime days. But sporting a piratical beard, the agency’s deputy head, Major-General Vadym Skibitsky, plays a nautical theme. Blunt, enigmatic and sharp as a captain’s hook, he exudes many of the qualities that have made hur one of the most talked about secret services in the world. But he sounds troubled as he assesses Ukraine’s battlefield prospects. Things, he says, are as difficult as they have ever been since the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion. And they are about to get worse.

He predicts that Russia will first press on with its plan to “liberate” all of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, a task unchanged since 2022. He says a Russian order has gone out to “take something” in time for the pomp of Victory Day in Moscow on May 9th, or, failing that, before Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing a week later. The speed and success of the advance will determine when and where the Russians strike next. “Our problem is very simple: we have no weapons. They always knew April and May would be a difficult time for us.”

Continues https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/0 ... or-general


Macron reaffirms possibility of sending troops to Ukraine

French President Emmanuel Macron reaffirmed he did not rule out sending troops to Ukraine, saying the issue would "legitimately" arise if Russia broke through Ukrainian front lines and Kyiv made such a request, in an interview with the Economist published Thursday.

https://www.france24.com/en/france/2024 ... ront-lines

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https://twitter.com/i/status/1786063152213278865

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https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine ... d-in-kyiv/

The Russian Ministry of Defense released Footage earlier today showing what is claimed to be the Elimination of a Ukrainian Special Forces Unit which had Infiltrated an Island on the Dnieper River Delta in the Kherson Region; they claim that through Airstrikes and One-Way “Suicide” Drone Strikes, upwards of 10 Ukrainian Servicemembers were Killed.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status ... 5665900005

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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/4 ... ts-day-800

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The Role of AI in Russia’s Confrontation with the West

Russian thinking about artificial intelligence (AI) development is consistent with that of other major powers that are seeking to respond to an evolving combat environment characterized by growing complexity and rapid technological change. Russia has made several pronouncements on the importance of AI in combat, yet it is often difficult to estimate whether the country’s Ministry of Defense (MOD) actually has utilized AI-enabled systems and weapons, including on the Ukrainian battlefield. Western sanctions and export controls also have the potential to increase the headwinds that Russia faces in its ability to meet its AI objectives.

Presently, the Russian military establishment is investing in AI research, development, testing, and evaluation (RDT&E) seen as most relevant today and in future combat. These investments are shaped both by the understanding of where such emphasis is placed among likely competitors, such as the United States and NATO, and where resources should be allocated based on the ongoing complicated combat in Ukraine.

Continues https://www.cnas.org/publications/repor ... h-the-west

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China's Jitian lntelligent Equipment, which develops UAVs, has opened an office in Russia, and will assemble agricultural drones in Krasnodar, around 20 UAVs per month.
For the record, such agricultural drones are favorites in the war as heavy bombers.
https://cnews.ru/news/top/2024-05-03_ki ... oizvoditel

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uk1wKuhBc8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5qeFKgmtxQ

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H I Sutton
***UPDATE***
Here http://www.hisutton.com/Ukraine-USV-FrankenSAM.html
Ukraine deploys 'FrankenSAM' air defenses on maritime drones (USVs).
The first known example was neutralized.
If however they prove effective against helicopters, then they could force Russia to rethink its defenses.

Go to https://twitter.com/CovertShores and scroll down.

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Navy Lookout reposted
OSINTtechnical
In the Black Sea, Russian forces spotted a Ukrainian USV armed with a twin rail launcher for R-73 all-aspect IR homing air-to-air missiles.
Based on the footage, some Ukrainian USVs now possess a nascent SAM capability, likely able to target low and slow Russian helicopters.

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https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1788099520955392361